Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Marta Victoria; Nancy Haegel; Ian Marius Peters; Ron Sinton; Arnulf Jäger-Waldau; Carlos del Cañizo; Christian Breyer; Matthew Stocks; Andrew Blakers; Izumi Kaizuka; Keiichi Komoto; Arno Smets

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2021.03.005

Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Marta Victoria^*, Nancy Haegel, Ian Marius Peters, Ron Sinton, Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, Carlos del Cañizo, Christian Breyer, Matthew Stocks, Andrew Blakers, Izumi Kaizuka, Keiichi Komoto, Arno Smets

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

392 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO₂ emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1041-1056
Number of pages	16
Journal	Joule
Volume	5
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.03.005
Publication status	Published - 2021

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10.1016/j.joule.2021.03.005

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title = "Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future",

abstract = "Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.",

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author = "Marta Victoria and Nancy Haegel and Peters, {Ian Marius} and Ron Sinton and Arnulf J{\"a}ger-Waldau and {del Ca{\~n}izo}, Carlos and Christian Breyer and Matthew Stocks and Andrew Blakers and Izumi Kaizuka and Keiichi Komoto and Arno Smets",

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year = "2021",

doi = "10.1016/j.joule.2021.03.005",

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T1 - Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

AU - Victoria, Marta

AU - Haegel, Nancy

AU - Peters, Ian Marius

AU - Sinton, Ron

AU - Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf

AU - del Cañizo, Carlos

AU - Breyer, Christian

AU - Stocks, Matthew

AU - Blakers, Andrew

AU - Kaizuka, Izumi

AU - Komoto, Keiichi

AU - Smets, Arno

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.

AB - Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.

KW - costs

KW - grid integration

KW - integrated assessment model

KW - land use

KW - learning curve

KW - materials availability

KW - partial-equilibrium model

KW - photovoltaics

KW - sector coupling

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JO - Joule

JF - Joule

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Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Abstract

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