TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China
AU - Tian, Lin
AU - Liang, Fengchao
AU - Xu, Meimei
AU - Jia, Lei
AU - Pan, Xiaochuan
AU - Clements, Archie C.A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 The Author(s).
PY - 2018/4/3
Y1 - 2018/4/3
N2 - Background: Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in China and occurs mostly in infants and children. Beijing is a densely populated megacity, in which HFMD has been increasing in the last decade. The aim of this study was to quantify spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD and the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence in Beijing, China. Methods: Daily counts of HFMD cases from January 2010 to December 2012 were obtained from the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). Seasonal trend decomposition with Loess smoothing was used to explore seasonal patterns and temporal trends of HFMD. Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression models were used to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD incidence and associations with meteorological factors. Results: There were 114,777 HFMD cases reported to Beijing CDC from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 and the raw incidence was 568.6 per 100,000 people. May to July was the peak period of HFMD incidence each year. Low-incidence townships were clustered in central, northeast and southwest regions of Beijing. Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine hours were all positively associated with HFMD. The effect of wind velocity was significant with a RR of 3.30 (95%CI: 2.37, 4.60) per meter per second increase, as was sunshine hours with a RR of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.40) per 1 hour increase. Conclusions: The distribution of HFMD in Beijing was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and was associated with meteorological factors. Meteorological monitoring could be incorporated into prediction and surveillance of HFMD in Beijing.
AB - Background: Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in China and occurs mostly in infants and children. Beijing is a densely populated megacity, in which HFMD has been increasing in the last decade. The aim of this study was to quantify spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD and the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence in Beijing, China. Methods: Daily counts of HFMD cases from January 2010 to December 2012 were obtained from the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). Seasonal trend decomposition with Loess smoothing was used to explore seasonal patterns and temporal trends of HFMD. Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression models were used to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD incidence and associations with meteorological factors. Results: There were 114,777 HFMD cases reported to Beijing CDC from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 and the raw incidence was 568.6 per 100,000 people. May to July was the peak period of HFMD incidence each year. Low-incidence townships were clustered in central, northeast and southwest regions of Beijing. Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine hours were all positively associated with HFMD. The effect of wind velocity was significant with a RR of 3.30 (95%CI: 2.37, 4.60) per meter per second increase, as was sunshine hours with a RR of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.40) per 1 hour increase. Conclusions: The distribution of HFMD in Beijing was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and was associated with meteorological factors. Meteorological monitoring could be incorporated into prediction and surveillance of HFMD in Beijing.
KW - Bayesian approach
KW - Hand-foot-mouth disease
KW - Meteorological factors
KW - Spatio-temporal analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85044858557&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12879-018-3071-3
DO - 10.1186/s12879-018-3071-3
M3 - Article
SN - 1471-2334
VL - 18
JO - BMC Infectious Diseases
JF - BMC Infectious Diseases
IS - 1
M1 - 158
ER -