Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

Xinting Lu; Hilary Bambrick; Francesca D. Frentiu; Xiaodong Huang; Callan Davis; Zhongjie Li; Weizhong Yang; Gregor J. Devine; Wenbiao Hu

doi:10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x

Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

Xinting Lu, Hilary Bambrick, Francesca D. Frentiu, Xiaodong Huang, Callan Davis, Zhongjie Li, Weizhong Yang, Gregor J. Devine, Wenbiao Hu^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector mosquito species may play a significant role in dengue transmission. We previously developed a species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectively. These SCIs rank geographic locations based on their climatic suitability for each of these two dengue vector species and theoretically define parameters for transmission probability. The aim of the study presented here was to use these SCIs together with socio-environmental factors to predict dengue outbreaks in the real world. Methods: A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between vector species-specific SCI and autochthonous dengue cases after accounting for potential confounders in Guangdong, China. The potential interactive effect between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti on dengue transmission was assessed. Results: The SCI for Ae. aegypti was found to be positively associated with autochthonous dengue transmission (incidence rate ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.09). A significant interaction effect between the SCI of Ae. albopictus and the SCI of Ae. aegypti was found, with the SCI of Ae. albopictus significantly reducing the effect of the SCI of Ae. aegypti on autochthonous dengue cases. The difference in SCIs had a positive effect on autochthonous dengue cases. Conclusions: Our results suggest that dengue fever is more transmittable in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). The SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a useful index to predict dengue transmission in Guangdong, China, even in dengue epidemic regions with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support the benefit of the SCI for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

Original language	English
Article number	342
Journal	Parasites and Vectors
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x
Publication status	Published - Dec 2022

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@article{de871ed270a94a70a1201e80dd7b110f,

title = "Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China",

abstract = "Background: Optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector mosquito species may play a significant role in dengue transmission. We previously developed a species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectively. These SCIs rank geographic locations based on their climatic suitability for each of these two dengue vector species and theoretically define parameters for transmission probability. The aim of the study presented here was to use these SCIs together with socio-environmental factors to predict dengue outbreaks in the real world. Methods: A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between vector species-specific SCI and autochthonous dengue cases after accounting for potential confounders in Guangdong, China. The potential interactive effect between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti on dengue transmission was assessed. Results: The SCI for Ae. aegypti was found to be positively associated with autochthonous dengue transmission (incidence rate ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.09). A significant interaction effect between the SCI of Ae. albopictus and the SCI of Ae. aegypti was found, with the SCI of Ae. albopictus significantly reducing the effect of the SCI of Ae. aegypti on autochthonous dengue cases. The difference in SCIs had a positive effect on autochthonous dengue cases. Conclusions: Our results suggest that dengue fever is more transmittable in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). The SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a useful index to predict dengue transmission in Guangdong, China, even in dengue epidemic regions with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support the benefit of the SCI for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]",

keywords = "Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Dengue transmission, Interactive effect, Suitable conditional index",

author = "Xinting Lu and Hilary Bambrick and Frentiu, {Francesca D.} and Xiaodong Huang and Callan Davis and Zhongjie Li and Weizhong Yang and Devine, {Gregor J.} and Wenbiao Hu",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

year = "2022",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x",

language = "English",

volume = "15",

journal = "Parasites and Vectors",

issn = "1756-3305",

publisher = "BioMed Central Ltd.",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

AU - Lu, Xinting

AU - Bambrick, Hilary

AU - Frentiu, Francesca D.

AU - Huang, Xiaodong

AU - Davis, Callan

AU - Li, Zhongjie

AU - Yang, Weizhong

AU - Devine, Gregor J.

AU - Hu, Wenbiao

PY - 2022/12

Y1 - 2022/12

N2 - Background: Optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector mosquito species may play a significant role in dengue transmission. We previously developed a species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectively. These SCIs rank geographic locations based on their climatic suitability for each of these two dengue vector species and theoretically define parameters for transmission probability. The aim of the study presented here was to use these SCIs together with socio-environmental factors to predict dengue outbreaks in the real world. Methods: A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between vector species-specific SCI and autochthonous dengue cases after accounting for potential confounders in Guangdong, China. The potential interactive effect between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti on dengue transmission was assessed. Results: The SCI for Ae. aegypti was found to be positively associated with autochthonous dengue transmission (incidence rate ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.09). A significant interaction effect between the SCI of Ae. albopictus and the SCI of Ae. aegypti was found, with the SCI of Ae. albopictus significantly reducing the effect of the SCI of Ae. aegypti on autochthonous dengue cases. The difference in SCIs had a positive effect on autochthonous dengue cases. Conclusions: Our results suggest that dengue fever is more transmittable in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). The SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a useful index to predict dengue transmission in Guangdong, China, even in dengue epidemic regions with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support the benefit of the SCI for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

AB - Background: Optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector mosquito species may play a significant role in dengue transmission. We previously developed a species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectively. These SCIs rank geographic locations based on their climatic suitability for each of these two dengue vector species and theoretically define parameters for transmission probability. The aim of the study presented here was to use these SCIs together with socio-environmental factors to predict dengue outbreaks in the real world. Methods: A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between vector species-specific SCI and autochthonous dengue cases after accounting for potential confounders in Guangdong, China. The potential interactive effect between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti on dengue transmission was assessed. Results: The SCI for Ae. aegypti was found to be positively associated with autochthonous dengue transmission (incidence rate ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.09). A significant interaction effect between the SCI of Ae. albopictus and the SCI of Ae. aegypti was found, with the SCI of Ae. albopictus significantly reducing the effect of the SCI of Ae. aegypti on autochthonous dengue cases. The difference in SCIs had a positive effect on autochthonous dengue cases. Conclusions: Our results suggest that dengue fever is more transmittable in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). The SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a useful index to predict dengue transmission in Guangdong, China, even in dengue epidemic regions with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support the benefit of the SCI for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

KW - Aedes aegypti

KW - Aedes albopictus

KW - Dengue transmission

KW - Interactive effect

KW - Suitable conditional index

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85138886416&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x

DO - 10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x

M3 - Article

SN - 1756-3305

VL - 15

JO - Parasites and Vectors

JF - Parasites and Vectors

IS - 1

M1 - 342

ER -

Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

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