Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective

Andrew Jarvis; David Leedal; C. James Taylor; Peter Young

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016

Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective

Andrew Jarvis^*, David Leedal, C. James Taylor, Peter Young

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a discrete time, state variable feedback control regime to analyze the closed-loop properties associated with stabilizing the global mean surface temperature anomaly at 2 °C within a sequential decision making framework made up of 20 year review periods beginning in 2020. The design of the feedback control uses an optimal control approach that minimizes the peak deceleration of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions whilst avoiding overshooting the 2 °C target. The peak value for emissions deceleration that satisfies the closed-loop optimization was found to be linearly related to climate sensitivity and a climate sensitivity of 3.5 °C gave a deceleration of -1.9 GtC/a/20 years². In addition to accounting for the predicted climate dynamics, the control system design includes a facility to emulate a robust corrective action in the face of uncertainty. The behavior of the overall control action is evaluated using an uncertainty scenario for climate model equilibrium sensitivity.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	665-674
Number of pages	10
Journal	Environmental Modelling and Software
Volume	24
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016
Publication status	Published - May 2009

Access to Document

10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016

Cite this

@article{ba1ff98b7e4f42ed92dc2fe22c654079,

title = "Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective",

abstract = "In this paper, we develop a discrete time, state variable feedback control regime to analyze the closed-loop properties associated with stabilizing the global mean surface temperature anomaly at 2 °C within a sequential decision making framework made up of 20 year review periods beginning in 2020. The design of the feedback control uses an optimal control approach that minimizes the peak deceleration of anthropogenic CO2 emissions whilst avoiding overshooting the 2 °C target. The peak value for emissions deceleration that satisfies the closed-loop optimization was found to be linearly related to climate sensitivity and a climate sensitivity of 3.5 °C gave a deceleration of -1.9 GtC/a/20 years2. In addition to accounting for the predicted climate dynamics, the control system design includes a facility to emulate a robust corrective action in the face of uncertainty. The behavior of the overall control action is evaluated using an uncertainty scenario for climate model equilibrium sensitivity.",

keywords = "Climate sensitivity, Eigenvalues, Feedback control, Stabilization, Surface temperature",

author = "Andrew Jarvis and David Leedal and Taylor, {C. James} and Peter Young",

year = "2009",

month = may,

doi = "10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016",

language = "English",

volume = "24",

pages = "665--674",

journal = "Environmental Modelling and Software",

issn = "1364-8152",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Stabilizing global mean surface temperature

T2 - A feedback control perspective

AU - Jarvis, Andrew

AU - Leedal, David

AU - Taylor, C. James

AU - Young, Peter

PY - 2009/5

Y1 - 2009/5

N2 - In this paper, we develop a discrete time, state variable feedback control regime to analyze the closed-loop properties associated with stabilizing the global mean surface temperature anomaly at 2 °C within a sequential decision making framework made up of 20 year review periods beginning in 2020. The design of the feedback control uses an optimal control approach that minimizes the peak deceleration of anthropogenic CO2 emissions whilst avoiding overshooting the 2 °C target. The peak value for emissions deceleration that satisfies the closed-loop optimization was found to be linearly related to climate sensitivity and a climate sensitivity of 3.5 °C gave a deceleration of -1.9 GtC/a/20 years2. In addition to accounting for the predicted climate dynamics, the control system design includes a facility to emulate a robust corrective action in the face of uncertainty. The behavior of the overall control action is evaluated using an uncertainty scenario for climate model equilibrium sensitivity.

AB - In this paper, we develop a discrete time, state variable feedback control regime to analyze the closed-loop properties associated with stabilizing the global mean surface temperature anomaly at 2 °C within a sequential decision making framework made up of 20 year review periods beginning in 2020. The design of the feedback control uses an optimal control approach that minimizes the peak deceleration of anthropogenic CO2 emissions whilst avoiding overshooting the 2 °C target. The peak value for emissions deceleration that satisfies the closed-loop optimization was found to be linearly related to climate sensitivity and a climate sensitivity of 3.5 °C gave a deceleration of -1.9 GtC/a/20 years2. In addition to accounting for the predicted climate dynamics, the control system design includes a facility to emulate a robust corrective action in the face of uncertainty. The behavior of the overall control action is evaluated using an uncertainty scenario for climate model equilibrium sensitivity.

KW - Climate sensitivity

KW - Eigenvalues

KW - Feedback control

KW - Stabilization

KW - Surface temperature

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=58549094900&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016

DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016

M3 - Article

SN - 1364-8152

VL - 24

SP - 665

EP - 674

JO - Environmental Modelling and Software

JF - Environmental Modelling and Software

IS - 5

ER -

Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this