Strategic Roles Beyond the Paramount Area: Asia Northeast and West

This article defines the contours of some possible difficult decisions ahead for Australian security policy in regions beyond the South Pacific and Southeast Asia. With limited defence resources, and potentially limitless global interests, Australia will need to weigh relativities of risk and translate them into deployment decisions. Australia’s military record and capabilities will increase expectations for deployments by the Australian Defence Force, although Australian Governments will typically retain a degree of discretion managing these. Beyond the neighbourhood, key regions of security concern for Australia will remain Northeast Asia and West Asia. Simultaneous contingencies in both regions could make conflicting demands on Australian assets; it would not be a simple allocation of land forces to West Asia and maritime to Northeast Asia. The most prominent low-probability/high-impact conflict scenario in Northeast Asia is likely to remain a US-China war over Taiwan. More likely, however, is a strategic shock on the Korean Peninsula, which might well entail expectations of an Australian response.