TY - JOUR
T1 - Strengthening national capacities for pandemic preparedness
T2 - a cross-country analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths
AU - Duong, David B.
AU - King, Andrew J.
AU - Grépin, Karen A.
AU - Hsu, Li Yang
AU - Lim, Jeremy Fy
AU - Phillips, Christine
AU - Thai, Truc Thanh
AU - Venkatachalam, Indumathi
AU - Vogt, Florian
AU - Yam, Esabelle Lo Yan
AU - Bazley, Stephanie
AU - Chang, Lydia Dai Jia
AU - Flaugh, Rachel
AU - Nagle, Baily
AU - Ponniah, Johanan Dravium
AU - Sun, Penny
AU - Trad, Nicolas K.
AU - Berwick, Donald M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected].
PY - 2022/1/1
Y1 - 2022/1/1
N2 - The International Health Regulations - State Party Annual Reporting (IHR-SPAR) index and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) have been developed to aid in strengthening national capacities for pandemic preparedness. We examined the relationship between country-level rankings on these two indices, along with two additional indices (the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator (n = 195)) and compared them to the country-level reported coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and deaths (Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard) through 17 June 2020. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to compare weekly reported COVID-19 cases and death rates per million in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic between countries classified as low, middle and high ranking on each index while controlling for country socio-demographic information. Countries with higher GHSI and IHR-SPAR index scores experienced fewer reported COVID-19 cases and deaths but only for the first 8 weeks after the country's first case. For the GHSI, this association was further limited to countries with populations below 69.4 million. For both the GHSI and IHR-SPAR, countries with a higher sub-index score in human resources for pandemic preparedness reported fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the first 8 weeks after the country's first reported case. The Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and Worldwide Governance Indicator country-level rankings were not associated with COVID-19 outcomes. The associations between GHSI and IHR-SPAR scores and COVID-19 outcomes observed in this study demonstrate that these two indices, although imperfect, may have value, especially in countries with a population under 69.4 million people for the GHSI. Preparedness indices may have value; however, they should continue to be evaluated as policy makers seek to better prepare for future global public health crises.
AB - The International Health Regulations - State Party Annual Reporting (IHR-SPAR) index and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) have been developed to aid in strengthening national capacities for pandemic preparedness. We examined the relationship between country-level rankings on these two indices, along with two additional indices (the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator (n = 195)) and compared them to the country-level reported coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and deaths (Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard) through 17 June 2020. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to compare weekly reported COVID-19 cases and death rates per million in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic between countries classified as low, middle and high ranking on each index while controlling for country socio-demographic information. Countries with higher GHSI and IHR-SPAR index scores experienced fewer reported COVID-19 cases and deaths but only for the first 8 weeks after the country's first case. For the GHSI, this association was further limited to countries with populations below 69.4 million. For both the GHSI and IHR-SPAR, countries with a higher sub-index score in human resources for pandemic preparedness reported fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the first 8 weeks after the country's first reported case. The Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and Worldwide Governance Indicator country-level rankings were not associated with COVID-19 outcomes. The associations between GHSI and IHR-SPAR scores and COVID-19 outcomes observed in this study demonstrate that these two indices, although imperfect, may have value, especially in countries with a population under 69.4 million people for the GHSI. Preparedness indices may have value; however, they should continue to be evaluated as policy makers seek to better prepare for future global public health crises.
KW - COVID-19
KW - health system
KW - national indices
KW - pandemic preparedness
KW - surveillance systems
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85123646555&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/heapol/czab122
DO - 10.1093/heapol/czab122
M3 - Article
SN - 0268-1080
VL - 37
SP - 55
EP - 64
JO - Health Policy and Planning
JF - Health Policy and Planning
IS - 1
ER -