Targeting socioeconomic transformations to achieve global sustainability

Green growth and post-growth are alternative concepts for transformative change. I investigated the amount of support each enjoys among sustainability scholars by performing a global expert survey (n = 461), in which scholars from around the world evaluated what future pathways they would prefer for different country income groups. Support for post-growth was substantial for high-income (77%) and upper-middle-income countries (59%) for the 2020s, while green growth was the most preferred pathway for lower-middle-income (64%) and low-income (58%) countries. Support for post-growth increased from 2020s to 2030s. On average, preferred future GDP rates were at or above 0% and at or below past average GDP rates regardless of context. I found an interaction between pathway preference and familiarity with post-growth, which helped explain desired future GDP rates in the context of high-income countries. Around 60% of the participants considered GDP to be a bad indicator of societal well-being. My results call for more emphasis on targeted transformational change in research, education, and policymaking, with particular focus on facilitating post-growth approaches for affluent countries. This could help societies find a safe and just way to secure global sustainability.