Temperature variations and residential natural gas consumption: do building attributes matter?

As the global average temperature rises, residential natural gas demand is expected to shift, particularly due to reduced heating needs during milder winters. However, empirical evidence at the building level remains limited. Using a comprehensive nationwide building-level dataset, this study examines how residential natural gas use responds to temperature variations in urban areas of China. Our results indicate that, on average, a 1% increase in heating degree days is associated with a 0.15% increase in residential natural gas use. The magnitude of this effect depends on building attributes, with differences in heating systems, structural features, and geographic location jointly shaping the response of residential natural gas consumption to temperature changes. Using simulations from 20 downscaled global climate models, we estimate that, under a high carbon emissions scenario, climate-driven natural gas use for residential buildings with individual heating systems could decline by approximately 31.7% by the end of the century, holding other factors constant.