Temporal stability of preferences: The case of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia and New Zealand

My Tran; Robbie Maris; Stephane Hess; Zack Dorner; Elisabeth Huynh; Kathryn Glass; Emily Lancsar

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118417

Temporal stability of preferences: The case of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia and New Zealand

My Tran^*, Robbie Maris, Stephane Hess, Zack Dorner, Elisabeth Huynh, Kathryn Glass, Emily Lancsar

^*Corresponding author for this work

National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel two-level Latent Class (LC) structure to investigate the temporal stability of preferences, allowing individuals to switch classes over time. The model is used to investigate the temporal stability of COVID–19 vaccine preferences in Australia (AUS) and New Zealand (NZ) during 2020-2021. Through online experiments on vaccine choices, stated choice data is collected across three waves from the general population in both countries. The LC estimation identifies three distinct preference classes: an “Impatient” group, with greater sensitivity to waiting time (AUS: 46%, NZ: 31%), a “Price Sensitive” group (AUS: 41%, NZ: 56%), and a “Vaccine Hesitant” group (AUS: 13%, NZ: 13%). Across waves, preferences for COVID-19 vaccines remain stable, with the probability of respondents remaining in the same class over three waves being 0.62 for Australia and 0.61 for NZ. Changes in preferences are significantly linked to variations in individuals’ socioeconomic status and COVID–19 policy responses during the survey period.

Original language	English
Article number	118417
Number of pages	10
Journal	Social Science and Medicine
Volume	383
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118417
Publication status	Published - Oct 2025

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title = "Temporal stability of preferences: The case of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia and New Zealand",

abstract = "This paper introduces a novel two-level Latent Class (LC) structure to investigate the temporal stability of preferences, allowing individuals to switch classes over time. The model is used to investigate the temporal stability of COVID–19 vaccine preferences in Australia (AUS) and New Zealand (NZ) during 2020-2021. Through online experiments on vaccine choices, stated choice data is collected across three waves from the general population in both countries. The LC estimation identifies three distinct preference classes: an “Impatient” group, with greater sensitivity to waiting time (AUS: 46\%, NZ: 31\%), a “Price Sensitive” group (AUS: 41\%, NZ: 56\%), and a “Vaccine Hesitant” group (AUS: 13\%, NZ: 13\%). Across waves, preferences for COVID-19 vaccines remain stable, with the probability of respondents remaining in the same class over three waves being 0.62 for Australia and 0.61 for NZ. Changes in preferences are significantly linked to variations in individuals{\textquoteright} socioeconomic status and COVID–19 policy responses during the survey period.",

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author = "My Tran and Robbie Maris and Stephane Hess and Zack Dorner and Elisabeth Huynh and Kathryn Glass and Emily Lancsar",

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doi = "10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118417",

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AU - Tran, My

AU - Maris, Robbie

AU - Hess, Stephane

AU - Dorner, Zack

AU - Huynh, Elisabeth

AU - Glass, Kathryn

AU - Lancsar, Emily

PY - 2025/10

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N2 - This paper introduces a novel two-level Latent Class (LC) structure to investigate the temporal stability of preferences, allowing individuals to switch classes over time. The model is used to investigate the temporal stability of COVID–19 vaccine preferences in Australia (AUS) and New Zealand (NZ) during 2020-2021. Through online experiments on vaccine choices, stated choice data is collected across three waves from the general population in both countries. The LC estimation identifies three distinct preference classes: an “Impatient” group, with greater sensitivity to waiting time (AUS: 46%, NZ: 31%), a “Price Sensitive” group (AUS: 41%, NZ: 56%), and a “Vaccine Hesitant” group (AUS: 13%, NZ: 13%). Across waves, preferences for COVID-19 vaccines remain stable, with the probability of respondents remaining in the same class over three waves being 0.62 for Australia and 0.61 for NZ. Changes in preferences are significantly linked to variations in individuals’ socioeconomic status and COVID–19 policy responses during the survey period.

AB - This paper introduces a novel two-level Latent Class (LC) structure to investigate the temporal stability of preferences, allowing individuals to switch classes over time. The model is used to investigate the temporal stability of COVID–19 vaccine preferences in Australia (AUS) and New Zealand (NZ) during 2020-2021. Through online experiments on vaccine choices, stated choice data is collected across three waves from the general population in both countries. The LC estimation identifies three distinct preference classes: an “Impatient” group, with greater sensitivity to waiting time (AUS: 46%, NZ: 31%), a “Price Sensitive” group (AUS: 41%, NZ: 56%), and a “Vaccine Hesitant” group (AUS: 13%, NZ: 13%). Across waves, preferences for COVID-19 vaccines remain stable, with the probability of respondents remaining in the same class over three waves being 0.62 for Australia and 0.61 for NZ. Changes in preferences are significantly linked to variations in individuals’ socioeconomic status and COVID–19 policy responses during the survey period.

KW - COVID-19

KW - Latent class

KW - Panel data

KW - Repeated choices

KW - Stated choices

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SN - 0277-9536

VL - 383

JO - Social Science and Medicine

JF - Social Science and Medicine

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ER -

Temporal stability of preferences: The case of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia and New Zealand

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