The Africanisation of the South Pacific

Democracy in the region appears to be in serious trouble. In the past year, the perception of the South Pacific has changed from an 'oasis of democracy' to an 'arc of instability', with the violent overthrow of the elected government in Fiji, an ethnic civil war between rival ethnic militias culminating in the forced resignation of a prime minister in the Solomon Islands, military insubordination in Vanuatu, ongoing political instability in PNG, the killing of a cabinet minister in Samoa and, most worryingly, an apparent demonstration effect at work, whereby extra-constitutional actions in one island group can, it seems, trigger similar activities in another. In addition, the region has become mired in sub-standard economic performance. One of the major legitimising claims for democratic government is that it offers the best prospects for development and economic growth, but in the South Pacific, democracy has clearly not brought with it the payoff of economic prosperity. In fact, on many indicators of development, the South Pacific region is on a par with sub-Saharan Africa in terms of its per capita GDP, literacy and schooling rates, public health statistics and, ominously, in its increasing lack of economic opportunity for young job seekers. Despite much talk over the years of the democratically inclined nature of most Pacific societies, particularly the egalitarian, competitive social structures of Melanesia, the evidence of the past year gives little basis for claiming that democracy has deep roots in the region. But there is also, it should be noted, precious little evidence for the reverse-that is, that the region is somehow susceptible to the outdated charms of authoritarianism (occasional wistful glances in the direction of Singapore notwithstanding). Demagogues are likely to have even less success than democrats. Essentially, it may be that attempts to create democratic states are floundering not so much on the concept of democracy as on that of the state itself. Democracy, as popularly understood, presumes the existence of a functioning state, but in a globalising world, where all states are becoming weaker, the fragility and artificiality of many South Pacific states is magnified. Fragile, multi-ethnic, post-colonial states encompassing different languages, ethnic groups, islands, and torn between the rival claims of tradition and modernity, raise serious questions about the viability of current state structures and their ability to manage internal conflicts.