The Autonomy‒Alignment Trade-Off: Japan’s Evolving Defense Posture

Tokyo’s defense doctrine and behavior have undergone a number of significant shifts under the Abe administration. These have occurred against the backdrop of declining U.S. power in Asia and, more recently, the Trump administration’s idiosyncratic “America First” policy. These developments thus raise questions about Tokyo’s strategic orientation and the continued durability of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Is Tokyo hedging against possible U.S. strategic abandonment of Japan and shifting toward a more independent defense posture? Drawing on interviews with government officials in 2019, it is argued here that the recent evolution of Japan’s defense policy has instead been premised on the continuation of the alliance as the core of its national security strategy. The U.S.-Japan security relationship has therefore been conducted primarily under the framework of traditional alliance management.