The Bangladesh fertility decline: An interpretation

Interest in the Bangladesh fertility decline was heightened by the publication of a World Bank study, The Determinants of Reproductive Change in Bangladesh: Success in a Challenging Environment (Cleland et al. 1994), which is probably the most influential analysis to posit the almost complete dominance of family planning programs-at least in the short term-in achieving such a change. Going beyond an unexceptionable statement about the proximate determinant of fertility, 'The main mechanism of change was increased contraceptive use' (Cleland et al. 1994: 56), the authors concluded: 'We have found it unnecessary and indeed implausible to invoke economic change and shifts in the utility of children as the central determinant' (ibid.: 140). According to a probably more widely read summary of the report published by the Population Reference Bureau the previous year, the analysis showed that no change was needed in the levels of economic development, urbanization, employment of women, or education 'for a family planning program to succeed' and that a key lesson had been 'the critical importance of sustained political commitment to an effective family planning program, adopted and pursued at the highest levels of government' (Carty, Yinger, and Rosov 1993:3-4). These are momentous conclusions. The purpose of this article is to investigate whether the experimental conditions were sufficiently good to warrant the findings. Were economic and social conditions so static that socioeconomic change-or perceived change-played only a small role, at least in the last quarter-century? We will refer to Bangladesh statistical information, but the main instrument will be data from a joint research program on fertility decline undertaken by the Extension Project of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) and the Australian National University. This article will focus on 1997 field work rather than on the 1995-96 phase of the study based on documents and selective interviews, which traced the historical roots of the family planning program and documented changes over time in the ideas and ideologies of the national elite (Khuda et al. 1996).