The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model

Marius D. Pascariu*, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, James W. Vaupel

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    43 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Life expectancy is highly correlated over time among countries and between males and females. These associations can be used to improve forecasts. Here we propose a method for forecasting female life expectancy based on analysis of the gap between female life expectancy in a country compared with the record level of female life expectancy in the world. Second, to forecast male life expectancy, the gap between male life expectancy and female life expectancy in a country is analysed. We present these results for various developed countries. We compare our results with forecasts based on the Lee–Carter approach and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd strategy. We focus on forecasting life expectancy at age 0 and remaining life expectancy at age 65.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)339-350
    Number of pages12
    JournalInsurance: Mathematics and Economics
    Volume78
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jan 2018

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