The Implications of Rapid Development for Emissions and Climate-change: Mitigation

This chapter argues that, notwithstanding the financial crisis, rapid economic growth has accelerated the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, making the effort required even greater. Furthermore, these costs are subject to policy bias and will increase with a more realistic view of policy that accounts for the absence of a smooth coordination between policy deployment, manufacturing capability, market power, and the underlying costs of capital. In the absence of a serious policy response to climate change, even the most pessimistic Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and post-SRES scenarios may underestimate future emissions growth and levels. The chapter looks at the evolution of greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades and then projects their 'business as usual' path out to 2030, that is, the path they would take in the absence of any further response to climate change.