The Middle East's changing strategic environment and the Third Arab Awakening

The Middle Eastthe oil-rich region stretching from Afghanistan to Morocco is in the grip of an evolving strategic environment. The old regional order and correlation of forces that until recently exemplified the remnants of the Cold War era, despite the US-led interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to alter that order, is now vulnerable to more strategic shifts than ever before. At this stage, one cannot be certain about the depth, intensity and consequences of the emerging environment in the short run. A host of interconnected variables are at work in shaping it. However, by examining the most salient of these variables in the context of parallel or conflicting ideological and realpolitik objectives, interests and capabilities, it is possible to gain some reasonable insights into what direction the regional strategic environment may take in the medium to long run. As the situation stands, the main indicators point to a Middle East that would be dominated by more political pluralism and accountability than authoritarianism, more Ijtihadi or reformist (stressing the value of a creative interpretation and application of Islam, based on independent human reasoning) rather than Jihadi or combative Islamism, yet more political and sectarian splits and Saudi-Iranian rivalry than across-the-board political and social reconciliation, a festering Palestinian problem, and serious economic concerns, with regional actors and outside powers scrambling for leverage to influence the strategic shifts in their favour in one way or another.