The political economy of Russia: Is it changing?

It is widely believed, including in the governments own rhetoric, that the Russian economy must diversify away from its dependence on raw material exports, above all hydrocarbons. That belief, further spurred by confrontation with the West and sanctions, has produced a major new policy emphasis on the revival of the Russian industrial sector, through such programmes as subsidized credits, import substitution, and support for non-resource exports. The drivers of the apparent policy shift, the actors pursuing it and those opposed to it, as well as the prospects for success, are examined. The conclusion reached is that neither the commitment to the new policy, nor its content, is likely to achieve the desired diversification of the economy.