The role of higher oil prices: A case of major developed countries

T. J. O'Neill, J. Penm, R. D. Terrell

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

    73 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The primary aim of this chapter is to examine whether the recent increase in world oil prices has affected inflation expectations and stock market returns in major OECD countries. The key findings are as follows. First, we found no evidence to support the presence of a long term relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations - measured by the difference between yields of inflation indexed and non-inflation indexed government bonds - over the sample between early 2003 and late 2006. Second, higher oil prices are found to lead to expectations of higher inflation. This evidence is stronger over the period where oil prices had been higher and signs of capacity constraints in the economy were emerging. Third, the impact of higher oil prices on stock market returns differs among countries. While higher oil prices are found to adversely affect stock market returns in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, the effects are positive in Canada and Australia as these countries are significant exporters of energy resources.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationResearch in Finance
    EditorsEdwin Chen
    Pages287-299
    Number of pages13
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2008

    Publication series

    NameResearch in Finance
    Volume24
    ISSN (Print)0196-3821

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