The Seismic Signature of Debris Flows: Flow Mechanics and Early Warning at Montecito, California

Debris flows are concentrated slurries of water and sediment that shape the landscape and pose a major hazard to human life and infrastructure. Seismic ground motion-based observations promise to provide new, remote constraints on debris flow physics, but the lack of data and a theoretical basis for interpreting them hinders progress. Here we present a new mechanistic physical model for the seismic ground motion of debris flows and apply this to the devastating debris flows in Montecito, California on 9 January 2018. The amplitude and frequency characteristics of the seismic data can distinguish debris flows from other seismic sources and enable the estimation of debris-flow speed, width, boulder sizes, and location. Results suggest that present instrumentation could have provided 5 min of early warning over limited areas, whereas a seismic array designed for debris flows would have provided 10 min of warning for most of the city.