The threshold states: Japan and Brazil

Maria Rost Rublee*

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

    3 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The global drive for disarmament, reinvigorated by President Barack Obama's Prague speech, now seems more hopeful than at any time over the past several decades. This chapter seeks to analyze the disarmament diplomacy of two signifi cant nuclear threshold states, Japan and Brazil, by examining both the opportunities and challenges they pose to the drive for nuclear disarmament. Because they have chosen to remain non- nuclear despite having signifi cant nuclear capability, threshold states are critical to future negotiations for a stable and secure nuclear- weapons- free world. On the one hand, having made the political decision to stay non- nuclear, threshold states may embrace the disarmament initiative as a way to ensure the continued viability of their choice (which may not be possible in a proliferating world). Supporting disarmament eff orts could be seen as an affi rmation of their restraint, both self- congratulating and self- fulfi lling. Additionally, the commitment to their non- nuclear status springs at least in part from a moral stance against nuclear weapons, which would lend itself to energetic support of global disarmament. On the other hand, disarmament initiatives could be seen as stripping the threshold states of their virtual nuclear capability, constraining their future choices. In addition, many of these states have large investments in the nuclear fuel cycle. Because global disarmament eff orts may eventually seek to lock down even the civilian fuel cycle, they could be seen as a direct economic and energy threat by the threshold states. Who are the nuclear threshold states? Nuclear threshold states are defi ned as those states with signifi cant material and scientifi c capability, but which have made the political decision to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons.2 This defi nition includes countries that previously had a military nuclear capability but gave it up. Using this defi nition, today's nuclear threshold states include Brazil, Japan, Egypt, South Africa, Canada, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, and Argentina.3 This chapter focuses on Japan and Brazil for a number of reasons. First, inherent in the concept of a nuclear threshold state is that if a political decision was made to acquire nuclear weapons, the state would be able to implement that decision reasonably quickly. Of all the threshold states, Japan has the technological capability to create nuclear weapons quickly, leading some to argue it has a "virtual" nuclear weapons capacity.4 In addition, because of its security environment (including having three nuclear- Armed neighbors), analysts oft en raise the question of whether Japan will "go nuclear." Examining the case of Japan will shed light on how threshold states manage to stay on the nonnuclear side of the divide. Brazil is an important case because while it remains a member in good standing of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (npt), it has tested the boundaries of what is defi ned as "appropriate" behavior perhaps more than any other threshold state. In particular, its insistence on shielding at its uranium enrichment plant serves as a possible looking glass into the future as the possibility of additional states claiming their sovereign right to enrich uranium. The issues of sovereignty and rights are critical ones for threshold states, ones that Brazil illustrates well. In addition, the case of Brazil underscores the potential for disarmament diplomacy of threshold states-both the possibilities and the pitfalls.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationSlaying the Nuclear Dragon
    Subtitle of host publicationDisarmament Dynamics in the Twenty-First Century
    PublisherUniversity of Georgia Press
    Pages151-187
    Number of pages37
    Volume9780820343808
    ISBN (Electronic)9780820343808
    ISBN (Print)0820336890, 9780820336893
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

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