TY - GEN
T1 - Transient climate response in the DICE integrated assessment model of climate-economy
AU - Hafeez, Salman
AU - Weller, Steven R.
AU - Kellett, Christopher M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Engineers Australia.
PY - 2017/3/1
Y1 - 2017/3/1
N2 - Integrated assessment models (IAMs) couple the interdependent dynamics of geophysical and economic systems. By solving an optimal control problem for a nonlinear, time-varying system, IAMs enable the determination of economically optimal pathways for emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Central to any IAM is a climate model capturing the dynamic response of global surface temperature to changes in net downward radiative forcing due to the atmospheric accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The transient climate response (TCR), defined as the temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling under a scenario in which CO2 concentrations increase by 1%yr-1, plays a central role in quantifying the economic impacts of climate change on policy-relevant timescales. In this paper, we propose an optimization-based methodology for computing the parameters of a climate model in such a way that the resulting model exhibits a specified TCR. The methodology developed in this paper targets the climate model parameterization employed in DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), a widely-studied IAM for which TCR is only indirectly specified. Results reported herein enable policymakers using DICE to compute optimal CO2 emissions pathways which directly reflect the TCR of state-of-the-art climate models documented in the most recent (Fifth) Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
AB - Integrated assessment models (IAMs) couple the interdependent dynamics of geophysical and economic systems. By solving an optimal control problem for a nonlinear, time-varying system, IAMs enable the determination of economically optimal pathways for emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Central to any IAM is a climate model capturing the dynamic response of global surface temperature to changes in net downward radiative forcing due to the atmospheric accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The transient climate response (TCR), defined as the temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling under a scenario in which CO2 concentrations increase by 1%yr-1, plays a central role in quantifying the economic impacts of climate change on policy-relevant timescales. In this paper, we propose an optimization-based methodology for computing the parameters of a climate model in such a way that the resulting model exhibits a specified TCR. The methodology developed in this paper targets the climate model parameterization employed in DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), a widely-studied IAM for which TCR is only indirectly specified. Results reported herein enable policymakers using DICE to compute optimal CO2 emissions pathways which directly reflect the TCR of state-of-the-art climate models documented in the most recent (Fifth) Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85016950047&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/AUCC.2016.7868203
DO - 10.1109/AUCC.2016.7868203
M3 - Conference contribution
T3 - 2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016
SP - 282
EP - 287
BT - 2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016
Y2 - 3 November 2016 through 4 November 2016
ER -