Transient climate response in the DICE integrated assessment model of climate-economy

Salman Hafeez, Steven R. Weller, Christopher M. Kellett

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) couple the interdependent dynamics of geophysical and economic systems. By solving an optimal control problem for a nonlinear, time-varying system, IAMs enable the determination of economically optimal pathways for emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Central to any IAM is a climate model capturing the dynamic response of global surface temperature to changes in net downward radiative forcing due to the atmospheric accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The transient climate response (TCR), defined as the temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling under a scenario in which CO2 concentrations increase by 1%yr-1, plays a central role in quantifying the economic impacts of climate change on policy-relevant timescales. In this paper, we propose an optimization-based methodology for computing the parameters of a climate model in such a way that the resulting model exhibits a specified TCR. The methodology developed in this paper targets the climate model parameterization employed in DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), a widely-studied IAM for which TCR is only indirectly specified. Results reported herein enable policymakers using DICE to compute optimal CO2 emissions pathways which directly reflect the TCR of state-of-the-art climate models documented in the most recent (Fifth) Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages282-287
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781922107909
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016 - Newcastle, Australia
Duration: 3 Nov 20164 Nov 2016

Publication series

Name2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016

Conference

Conference2016 Australian Control Conference, AuCC 2016
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CityNewcastle
Period3/11/164/11/16

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