Uncertainty, forecasting and the difficulty of strategy

Strategy in practice inevitably involves the forecasting of future cause-effect relationships. Four basic sources of uncertainty that make it difficult to predict and “test” these relationships, associated variables, as well as parameters can be distinguished: aleatory uncertainty; complex systems; mental, cognitive and physiological limits; and the enemy. To a varying degree, all four contribute to the difficulty inherent in predicting the international security environment, intelligence and deception, friction, strategic interactions with the enemy, and revolutions in military affairs. Since none of the basic sources of uncertainty can be eliminated by technical or organizational measures, strategy will always remain difficult.