Uncertainty of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the building sector in China

Uncertainty is a major concern in projecting the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from buildings with implications for the formulation of mitigation and adaptation measures. Due to multiple uncertainties, it is difficult to assess how the energy consumption of buildings in China and the associated CO₂ emissions will develop in the coming decades. Aiming to give a more accurate picture of the uncertainty of the driving factors, we develop a bottom-up national energy technology model for building sector (NET-Building) to depict the evolutionary trajectories of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China's building sector by considering the uncertainty of future evolution trends of key variables that affecting the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The results show that China's building energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will peak in 2025–2040 and 2025–2035, with peak energy consumption and CO₂ emissions varying from 742–1585 Mtce and 2238–4211 Mt, respectively. Meanwhile, the electricity consumption in the building sector in China will reach 2515–7242 TWh by 2050, indicating a large variation range caused by uncertainties.