Understanding the complex system dynamics of managing water security

In many parts of the world, assuring reliable supplies of potable water is a serious challenge. It is not simply a matter of imposing restrictions on supply, increasing water prices, and building new dams. Effective water security strategies can only be developed when the mechanisms of supply and demand and the interactions between are fully understood. A System Dynamics (SD) modeling approach is taken to collect, analyze and merge the views of both consumers and supply managers in order to develop conceptual models which then form the basis for building quantitative models to investigate the complex dynamics. The modeling process has led to a significant increase in the understanding of the management of water security. First, the process has reinforced a number of lessons learned by SD modelers over the years, and second, the process has exposed a significant number of mis-perceptions about water security among supply managers and consumers.