Understanding the progression to violence: background characteristics and risk factors for radicalisation to violent extremism

'Home-grown' extremism is a growing threat to Australian society with an increasing number of individuals becoming susceptible to radicalisation across the ideological spectrum. This thesis examines the backgrounds and risk factors associated with individual-level radicalisation leading to involvement in violent extremism drawing on criminological and radicalisation theories. The overarching aim is to assess what risk factors are associated with radicalisation and if these have the capacity to distinguish between violent and non-violent outcomes. This study adopts a quantitative approach and conducts three interrelated studies. It draws on data from the Profiles of Individual Radicalisation in Australia (PIRA), a recently developed open-source database of individuals who have radicalised to extremism espousing Islamist, far-right, far-left and single-issue ideologies. Informed by the broader scholarship, the complete PIRA sample (N = 254) is utilised to identify and explore the backgrounds, vulnerabilities, and triggers of radicalisation across individual, social, and environmental risk domains. Using an analytic subsample (N = 154) these risk factors are assessed as to their capacity to differentiate between violent and non-violent behavioural outcomes of radicalisation. These factors are further examined in an integrated theoretical model that considers the accumulation of risk factors to explain the progression from radicalisation to violence. Findings show that prominent factors cited in the broader literature including grievances, psychological vulnerability, and online and offline social networks are associated with those who have radicalised to extremism. Results also indicate some ability for certain risk factors to delineate between violent and non-violent individuals. The strongest support was found for psycho-social perspectives, derived from radicalisation process models and criminological theories. Results highlight the importance of social learning and group dynamics in conjunction with heightened cognitive and psychological vulnerability in facilitating the onset of radicalisation leading to violence. The thesis considers the broader theoretical and practical implications of the findings and acknowledges study limitations.