TY - JOUR
T1 - Urbanization can benefit agricultural production with large-scale farming in China
AU - Wang, Sitong
AU - Bai, Xuemei
AU - Zhang, Xiaoling
AU - Reis, Stefan
AU - Chen, Deli
AU - Xu, Jianming
AU - Gu, Baojing
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2021/3
Y1 - 2021/3
N2 - Urbanization has often been considered a threat to food security since it is likely to reduce the availability of croplands. Using spatial statistics and scenario analysis, we show that an increase in China’s urbanization level from 56% in 2015 to 80% in 2050 would actually release 5.8 million hectares of rural land for agricultural production—equivalent to 4.1% of China’s total cropland area in 2015. Even considering the relatively lower land fertility of these new croplands, crop production in 2050 would still be 3.1–4.2% higher than in 2015. In addition, cropland fragmentation could be reduced with rural land release and a decrease in rural population, benefiting large-scale farming and environmental protection. To ensure this, it is necessary to adopt an integrated urban–rural development model, with reclamation of lands previously used as residential lots. These insights into the urbanization and food security debate have important policy implications for global regions undergoing rapid urbanization.
AB - Urbanization has often been considered a threat to food security since it is likely to reduce the availability of croplands. Using spatial statistics and scenario analysis, we show that an increase in China’s urbanization level from 56% in 2015 to 80% in 2050 would actually release 5.8 million hectares of rural land for agricultural production—equivalent to 4.1% of China’s total cropland area in 2015. Even considering the relatively lower land fertility of these new croplands, crop production in 2050 would still be 3.1–4.2% higher than in 2015. In addition, cropland fragmentation could be reduced with rural land release and a decrease in rural population, benefiting large-scale farming and environmental protection. To ensure this, it is necessary to adopt an integrated urban–rural development model, with reclamation of lands previously used as residential lots. These insights into the urbanization and food security debate have important policy implications for global regions undergoing rapid urbanization.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85105970332&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s43016-021-00228-6
DO - 10.1038/s43016-021-00228-6
M3 - Article
SN - 2662-1355
VL - 2
SP - 183
EP - 191
JO - Nature Food
JF - Nature Food
IS - 3
ER -