Use of 3-PG and 3-PGS to simulate forest growth dynamics of Australian tropical rainforests. I. Parameterisation and calibration for old-growth, regenerating and plantation forests

Accurate information concerning regional to ecosystem-scale carbon dynamics within tropical rainforests is important because of the increasing certainty that the global climate will change significantly within the next century. Tropical forests of north Queensland, Australia, are highly sensitive to climate change and substantial shifts in the distribution of these forests are likely to occur with minor variations in climate. The focus of this research was the development of a model-based system for assessing forest growth and biomass accumulation dynamics within Australia's tropical rainforest bioregion and predicting the impacts of climate change on these dynamics. This paper presents the parameterisation and calibration of (a) the 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth) model to a selection of restored rainforest and commercial timber plantations and (b) a modified version 3-PGS which uses satellite data, enabling the spatial assessment of mature tropical rainforest growth and production throughout the wet tropics bioregion. Statistically significant relationships were observed between 3-PG and 3-PGS modelled and field measured estimates of stand structural attributes including, basal area (BA), diameter at breast height (DBH) and above-ground biomass (AGB) throughout the bioregion. 3-PG and 3-PGS modelled leaf area index (LAI) and net primary production (NPP) related well to published estimates at other similar rainforest sites. These results indicate that the simple, process-based models are effective at capturing the growth dynamics of structurally complex old-growth, restoration and plantation rainforests.