Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

Adam J. Kucharski; Mike Kama; Conall H. Watson; Maite Aubry; Sebastian Funk; Alasdair D. Henderson; Oliver J. Brady; Jessica Vanhomwegen; Jean Claude Manuguerra; Colleen L. Lau; W. John Edmunds; John Aaskov; Eric James Nilles; Van Mai Cao-Lormeau; Stéphane Hué; Martin L. Hibberd

doi:10.7554/eLife.34848

Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

Adam J. Kucharski^*, Mike Kama, Conall H. Watson, Maite Aubry, Sebastian Funk, Alasdair D. Henderson, Oliver J. Brady, Jessica Vanhomwegen, Jean Claude Manuguerra, Colleen L. Lau, W. John Edmunds, John Aaskov, Eric James Nilles, Van Mai Cao-Lormeau, Stéphane Hué, Martin L. Hibberd

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.

Original language	English
Article number	e34848
Journal	eLife
Volume	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.34848
Publication status	Published - 14 Aug 2018

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10.7554/eLife.34848

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Kucharski, A. J., Kama, M., Watson, C. H., Aubry, M., Funk, S., Henderson, A. D., Brady, O. J., Vanhomwegen, J., Manuguerra, J. C., Lau, C. L., Edmunds, W. J., Aaskov, J., Nilles, E. J., Cao-Lormeau, V. M., Hué, S., & Hibberd, M. L. (2018). Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji. eLife, 7, Article e34848. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.34848

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title = "Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji",

abstract = "Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.",

author = "Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Mike Kama and Watson, {Conall H.} and Maite Aubry and Sebastian Funk and Henderson, {Alasdair D.} and Brady, {Oliver J.} and Jessica Vanhomwegen and Manuguerra, {Jean Claude} and Lau, {Colleen L.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and John Aaskov and Nilles, {Eric James} and Cao-Lormeau, {Van Mai} and St{\'e}phane Hu{\'e} and Hibberd, {Martin L.}",

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Kucharski, AJ, Kama, M, Watson, CH, Aubry, M, Funk, S, Henderson, AD, Brady, OJ, Vanhomwegen, J, Manuguerra, JC, Lau, CL, Edmunds, WJ, Aaskov, J, Nilles, EJ, Cao-Lormeau, VM, Hué, S & Hibberd, ML 2018, 'Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji', eLife, vol. 7, e34848. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.34848

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AU - Kucharski, Adam J.

AU - Kama, Mike

AU - Watson, Conall H.

AU - Aubry, Maite

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Henderson, Alasdair D.

AU - Brady, Oliver J.

AU - Vanhomwegen, Jessica

AU - Manuguerra, Jean Claude

AU - Lau, Colleen L.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Aaskov, John

AU - Nilles, Eric James

AU - Cao-Lormeau, Van Mai

AU - Hué, Stéphane

AU - Hibberd, Martin L.

PY - 2018/8/14

Y1 - 2018/8/14

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AB - Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.

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Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

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