TY - JOUR
T1 - Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe
AU - Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
AU - Bijak, Jakub
AU - Christiansen, Solveig
AU - Forster, Jonathan J.
AU - Keilman, Nico
AU - Raymer, James
AU - Smith, Peter W.F.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
AB - In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
KW - Bayesian modelling
KW - Delphi survey
KW - Elicitation
KW - Expert knowledge
KW - Migration statistics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888424313&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2478/jos-2013-0041
DO - 10.2478/jos-2013-0041
M3 - Article
SN - 0282-423X
VL - 29
SP - 583
EP - 607
JO - Journal of Official Statistics
JF - Journal of Official Statistics
IS - 4
ER -