West and Central African iron ore development and its impact on world prices

Luke Hurst*

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    6 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The focus of the paper is on the potential of iron ore supplies from West and Central Africa to enter the export market over the short and medium terms and how this could impact the supply-side capacity and market price. To assess this, three export development scenarios (low, medium and high risk) are constructed for 17 iron ore mines (over 27 production expansion projects) in West and Central Africa. The projections for African iron ore are compared with the latest medium-term import forecasts and suggest that the development of West and Central African iron ore has the potential to create significant downward pressure on the price of iron ore exports over the medium term. The increased export capacity could push marginal producers - mainly in China but also in India and elsewhere - out of the market.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)521-538
    Number of pages18
    JournalAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
    Volume57
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 2013

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