Will fertility rebound in Japan?

Fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most high income OECD countries. Low fertility and a gender wage gap persist in Japan. This paper presents an original model where endogenous increases in childcare prices and gender equity in capital allocation play important roles in the effect of per capita income growth and rising female relative wages on fertility. Results suggest Japan has cause for optimism. Economic growth will raise female relative wages where capital is equitably allocated in the workforce. In turn, rising female relative wages will sustain a fertility rebound where childcare productivity is sufficiently high.